Multiple economists support President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” — and have just two words for the detractors who argue the tariffs risk a worldwide recession, empower China, and put the U.S. on a collision course: Toughen up.
Trump, these supporters note, has moved at warp sweep since returning to the White House to upend Biden era policies that destabilized the United States — starting by swiftly ending illegal immigration via an open border, reducing crime and lowering inflation.
Now, by abruptly imposing tariffs on all of the United States’ trading partners, Trump is forging a path to free trade, and a renaissance in American manufacturing and ingenuity.
Not only is Trump’s trade policy the right move for the United States, supporters maintain, but U.S. companies and consumers alike will be able to shoulder the tariffs and temporarily higher prices.
“The system is broken,” says Paul Dans, who led Project 2025. “A builder, Trump knows that the initial phase of any renovation is demolition. Trump has embarked on a great restoration of America. The nation needs to first get back on its feet in order to remain the world’s beacon of freedom and democracy.”
Bonner Cohen, a senior policy analyst with the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, admits that while Trump’s sledgehammer approach is like a “bull in a China shop,” Trump has a sound rationale and a clear end goal for the tariffs, which is to strengthen America.
“Trump is a disruptor on a grandiose scale — but Trump’s calculation to create a second industrial revolution in the United States driven by AI will pay off,” Cohen said.
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William Flaig, founder & CEO of American Conservative Values ETF, says Trump’s “ultimate goal of accomplishing a fairer trade environment for the U.S. will help American manufacturers and bring production back to the United States.”
These goals align with Flaig’s investment discipline, which has led him to exclude investments in General Motors and Apple from the American Conservative Values ETF, while investing in Ford, which “assembles 78% of the vehicles it sells in the United States here in this country,” Flaig says.
Medical and pharmaceutical production; semiconductor chips to support artificial intelligence; and electronics and machinery are just three industries in which the U.S. has come to rely on China to produce, and which, Cohen and Flaig agree, should be brought back to the U.S.
Repatriating pharmaceutical manufacturing, for instance, says Chad Moutray, the chief economist of the National Association of Manufacturers, would not only strengthen the United States’ industrial base but also create jobs and lead to advancements in pharmaceutical research and development.
As for some U.S. retailers, like Walmart and Target, that will be increasing costs of their goods by up to 30% because of the tariffs, Cohen says they could source more of their goods here in the United States. On the heels of these big-box retailers’ announcements of price increases, Home Depot and Lowe’s said they would not be increasing their prices because they have diversified their supply chains.
Lowe’s and Home Depot’s very strategic goal is to use this opportunity of Walmart’s and Target’s missteps to “expand market share, even if they have to temporarily sell some items and a loss,” Cohen says. “When the tariff upset is over, Lowe’s and Home Depot will have lured customers to their stores that they hope to keep.
“Already, we are seeing that there will be clear winners and losers” in the tariff shakeup, Cohen said.
“The Mexican standoff between the U.S. and China and its other trading partners cannot last too long, which is why we are going to see deals cut within weeks or months. The reshoring of manufacturing to the U.S. will be fascinating to watch — but it will take place unevenly.”
A number of U.S. states with favorable tax, regulation, energy and labor policies are likely to attract the lion’s share of the new manufacturing and jobs Cohen believes, citing Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia as the states most likely to come out on top.
As for the extreme stock market volatility that has ensured since April 2’s “Liberation Day,” Flaig notes that most of the losses have be gained back as Wall Street has come to realize Trump’s draconian tariffs of as high as 145% on China are “largely a negotiation tactic.”
In fact, investment and business experts say, despite the media’s portrayal of Trump’s tariffs as “erratic,” “arbitrary” and “protectionist,” Trump in his second term is more level-headed and measured than in his first term.
Flaig believes the tariff negotiations are a passing transition period. The market is not crashing, Flaig assures, nor is a recession imminent. A key date he says to look for is July 9, when the 90-day pause on retaliatory tariffs between the United States and China ends.
If the latest polls are any indication, the American public agrees that the tariffs are, on the whole, a positive for the nation. Rasmussen Reports’ most recent survey found that for the first time in roughly 20 years, an even 50% of the country believes the United States is on the “right track.”
Any skeptics of Trump’s “erratic” trade policy need only consider how China has benefited from the Biden administration’s rush to embrace green energy, Cohen points out. “China has a stranglehold on solar panels and EV batteries,” Cohen says. “China does not play by the fair trade rules. It has used global trade agreements to their advantage and reaped enormous benefit from the status quo.”
As just one piece of the Trump trade policy, Cohen continues, “Trump is moving the U.S. away from green energy through the tariffs — away from China to Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and some U.S. manufacturers of alternative energy, nuclear energy, and fossil fuel. President Trump’s administration is determined to block China’s goal of becoming the world’s No. 1 power.”
Trump’s logical reasoning in favor of the country is why, Cohen believes, “ultimately, China will back down. No market can replace the U.S. market.”
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