As voters prepare to head to the polls on Tuesday, new surveys released over the weekend suggest that key races in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City remain highly competitive, with Democrats holding narrow advantages in some contests and tightening margins in others.
In New Jersey, the governor’s race has turned into a nail-biter.
A new AtlasIntel poll conducted Oct. 25–30 shows Democrat Mikie Sherrill barely edging out Republican Jack Ciattarelli, 50.2% to 49.3%, within the survey’s 2-point margin of error.
The poll, which sampled more than 1,600 likely voters, underscores how evenly divided the Garden State remains as both campaigns sprint toward the finish line.
The close numbers just before former President Barack Obama appeared at a Nov. 1 rally for Sherrill, a sign of how seriously Democrats are treating the contest.
While New Jersey has leaned blue in recent presidential and statewide elections, Ciattarelli’s strong challenge has energized Republicans hoping to reclaim the governor’s mansion.
Early voting patterns give Democrats a modest reason for optimism.
CNN’s analysis of pre-election data shows that Democrat turnout — both by mail and in early in-person voting — is slightly ahead of 2024 levels, when then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by six points.
Registered Democrats currently outpace Republicans in mail-ballot returns by over 41 points, compared to a 39-point edge at this point last year. Democrats have also gained a small but meaningful 2-point advantage in early in-person voting, reversing their deficit from a year ago.
In Virginia, Democrat Gov. Abigail Spanberger appears to be in strong position for reelection, while the state’s attorney general race remains on a razor’s edge.
According to a new Hill/Emerson poll, Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears 56% to 44%, maintaining a comfortable margin heading into the final weekend.
However, the poll also shows the downballot race for attorney general as a virtual toss-up: Democrat Jerra Jones holds 51% to Republican incumbent Jason Miyares’s 49%, well within the margin of error.
Early voting trends mirror those in New Jersey, with CNN analysts noting that Democrats are performing slightly better than they did in 2024.
Mail-in participation and early in-person turnout both indicate higher engagement among Democratic voters, giving Spanberger’s campaign momentum — but party strategists warn that Virginia’s recent elections have seen significant day-of-voting swings, keeping the race unpredictable.
Meanwhile, the 2025 New York City mayoral race remains fluid.
The latest AtlasIntel survey shows incumbent Zohran Mamdani holding a 7-point lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 41% to 34%, with Republican Curtis Sliwa drawing 24%.
While Mamdani retains the advantage, the gap has narrowed compared with earlier polls that showed double-digit margins.
Cuomo’s campaign has capitalized on a late surge of support among older and more moderate Democrats.
Early voting data analyzed by CNN indicates that older voters have turned out at higher rates than during the primary, when Mamdani’s energized youth movement powered his upset victory.
Even so, the electorate remains younger overall than in past mayoral contests, and turnout among younger voters has increased as Election Day approaches — a sign that Mamdani’s base may be re-mobilizing.
Across all three contests, the final weekend polling and early-voting analysis suggest mild Democrat tailwinds, though none of the key races appear locked up.
In both New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats are outperforming their 2024 benchmarks, while in New York City, Cuomo has narrowed Mamdani’s edge but still trails.
As campaigns flood airwaves and voters make their final decisions, the closing message from analysts is caution: early-voting trends can indicate enthusiasm but do not guarantee results.
With turnout expected to spike on Election Day itself, the ultimate outcome in these closely watched races could hinge on which side’s supporters show up in full force on Tuesday.
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